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AI Lending & Credit Risk Consumer Lending Portfolio Risk & CECL Stress Testing

What a bifurcating economic outlook means for credit markets, featuring Oxford Economics

Tuesday, June 23, 2026
12:00 PM ET / 11:00 AM CT

Headline economic data may not tell the full story for credit quality, asset quality, and portfolio performance. Economic resilience is masking growing divergence across consumers, businesses, and credit markets, creating clearer winners and losers beneath the surface.

This session will examine how a more bifurcated outlook could affect borrower performance, delinquency trends, and portfolio risk. Oxford Economics will share insights on the forces shaping the current environment, including labor market churn, persistent inflation pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, the AI boom, a K-shaped consumer, and the challenges facing smaller businesses as larger firms remain better positioned.

You will learn:

  • How diverging consumer outcomes may influence credit quality, delinquency trends, and portfolio performance
  • Why labor market churn can create hidden risks beneath stable headline data
  • What persistent inflation and a prolonged Fed hold could mean for borrowers, lenders, and planning
  • How economic pressures differ for large, diversified firms and smaller businesses
  • Ways to use economic insight to support portfolio monitoring, risk assessment, and planning

Available for 1 CPE credit

Meet Your Presenters

Michael Pearce

Chief US Economist
Oxford Economics
Michael Pearce is Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, based in New York. He leads US macroeconomic research and forecasting, and his team has been ranked among Bloomberg's top forecasters for major US economic indicators. Before joining Oxford Economics, Michael was a senior economist on the US team at Capital Economics and worked at HM Treasury in the UK. He holds degrees in Economic History from the London School of Economics and in Economics from University College London.

Full Bio

Neekis Hammond, CPA

Vice President, Portfolio Risk Sales and Services
Abrigo
Neekis Hammond has amassed a wealth of knowledge on ALLL, CECL preparation and methodologies, and various portfolio analysis and risk topics. Prior to his consulting work, he worked on acquisitions up to $2 billion in size at a multi-billion-dollar financial institution.

Full Bio