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Bank M&A fair value: What has changed

Mike Green
May 26, 2026
0 min read

The changing environment affects deal pricing and fair value outcomes

Over the past two years, the M&A landscape for financial institutions has undergone a meaningful transition. A previously constrained environment was defined by rapidly rising interest rates, widening valuation discounts, muted deal activity, and a lengthy regulatory process. That environment has now become more constructive and more active, creating a wider window for transactions and changing the assumptions that drive fair value. 

As rates, funding costs, approval timelines, and purchase accounting have shifted, fair value outcomes have become less punitive in some areas and easier to model with greater confidence.

Read the latest on loan fair value and exit price trends.

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Factors affecting fair value marks

Rising and elevated market rates drove significant pressure on loan fair value marks while also increasing the value of core deposits in recent years. But several more recent key developments altered that dynamic and accelerated the announcement of merger transactions in 2025:

  • The Federal Reserve has shifted policy direction, implementing rate cuts following peak tightening
  • Market expectations for future rate paths have stabilized
  • Bank loan portfolios have repriced upward
  • Bank equity valuations have improved
  • Regulatory processes have become more efficient
  • Deal flow has begun to reaccelerate, with a broader mix of transaction structures

Although deal activity has slowed into 2026, this updated environment is changing not only how deals are priced, but also how fair value is measured and interpreted. Transaction-specific analysis remains critical for financial institutions, even in a more constructive environment, because portfolio composition, borrower concentration, collateral trends, and embedded risks can still materially affect deal economics.

A reopening M&A window

During the rising rate cycle, deal activity slowed considerably due to:

  • Depressed bank stock valuations
  • Increased uncertainty around credit quality
  • Larger fair value discounts, particularly on fixed-rate loan portfolios
  • Tangible book value dilution concerns

Today, many of those handicaps have partially reversed. Lower rates, improved market confidence, and the regulatory backdrop have:

  • Reduced the severity of loan discounts
  • Improved buyer currency (stock)
  • Increased alignment between buyer and seller expectations
  • Reduced execution risk through shorter approval timelines

As a result, we are seeing more traditional acquisitions returning, including the re-emergence of large transactions. We are also seeing increased competition for attractive franchises, particularly those with strong deposit bases. Shorter deal timelines further reduce the risk that fair value estimates will change materially between announcement and closing.

Loan portfolio valuations: From peak discounts to normalization

At the peak of the rate cycle, loan portfolios experienced significant fair value discounts driven by:

  • Market discount rates far exceeding portfolio yields
  • Limited ability for legacy loans to reprice
  • Elevated uncertainty around borrower performance

The Federal funds rate reached a peak in mid-2023 and held flat for much of 2024. Beginning in September 2024, the Federal Reserve reduced rates, bringing the year-end 2024 federal funds rate to 4.33%. Rates then stabilized through most of 2025 until the Federal Reserve resumed easing in September 2025, cutting rates by another 75 basis points over three moves by year-end. As the yield curve began to normalize, loan portfolio yield discounts also compressed meaningfully.

While market rates remained elevated relative to 2020 and 2021 levels, cumulative Fed easing since the third quarter of 2024, combined with continued repricing of loan portfolios toward current market levels, reduced the severity of yield-driven discounts reflected in the accounting for loans.

With rate stabilization and selective rate cuts:

  • The spread between market rates and portfolio yields has generally narrowed
  • New loan production and variable rate loan repricings have lifted portfolio yields overall
  • Discount severity has moderated meaningfully

Financial institutions with older fixed-rate loans with longer maturities, however, remain more challenged from a fair value perspective.

Credit marks: Stability, with continued need for diligence

Credit marks remained relatively stable through much of the rate cycle, as macroeconomic conditions held up better than expected. That stability, however, should not be read as a reason for less rigorous diligence.

Aggregate credit marks may appear steady, but portfolio composition, borrower concentration, collateral trends, and pockets of embedded risk can still materially affect deal economics.

Core deposit intangible values: Peak value from higher rates has passed

In a rising rate environment, core deposits became more valuable as the spread between low-cost deposits and alternative funding sources widened. That dynamic increased the value of core deposit intangibles and made strong deposit franchises more attractive in M&A transactions.

As rates have declined, the economic advantage of core deposits has compressed modestly because the cost of alternative funding sources has also decreased. The spread between the all-in cost of core deposits and wholesale funds has narrowed, reducing some of the premium that higher-rate conditions created.

Core deposits remain an important source of franchise value, but the tradeoff in valuation is worth noting. Higher CDI values reduce goodwill, which does not amortize, while also increasing future noninterest expense through CDI amortization. As CDI values moderate, that future amortization burden becomes somewhat less of a concern for buyers evaluating transaction economics.

CECL and purchase accounting: Complexity has been simplified

The interaction between fair value marks and CECL remains a central issue in deal modeling. In November of 2025, the FASB adopted ASU 2025-08 (Topic 326) for the accounting of purchased credit deteriorated (PCD) loans and non-PCD loans (now referred to as purchased seasoned loans or PSL). The change eliminates the prior “double count” impact and simplifies how institutions model the effect of acquired loan marks.

Under the prior standard, an institution determined the fair value of the acquired loan portfolio and recorded the discount on Day 1, which increases goodwill. After closing, the institution then immediately recorded an allowance on non-PCD loans through provision expense. In effect, a portion of the credit mark was counted twice, once in fair value and again through the allowance.

Under the new standard, PSL loans receive the same accounting treatment as PCD loans, eliminating the double count. The change improves Day 1 capital because an immediate provision expense no longer reduces retained earnings. Instead, a portion of the mark is reallocated to the allowance at closing.

That benefit comes with an important tradeoff. Because a portion of the discount related to non-PCD (PSL) loans is now allocated to the allowance rather than accreted into income over time, income accretion will be lower than under the prior model. For acquirers, the result is a cleaner, more transparent framework for evaluating capital, goodwill, and post-close earnings impact.

Faster approvals: Implications for fair value

One of the more meaningful shifts in today’s environment is the acceleration of regulatory approvals.

Historically, transactions often took four to six months (and longer for more complex deals) from announcement to closing. As such, there was market risk that fair values could change materially before close, particularly in volatile rate environments.

The risk was especially evident in 2023, when rising rates widened loan fair value discounts rapidly while portfolio yields adjusted more slowly. In some cases, the estimated loan discount at due diligence differed significantly from the amount ultimately booked at closing, resulting in higher goodwill than initially anticipated, all else equal.

Shorter windows from announcement to closing reduce some of this risk in today’s market. For buyers and sellers, that means greater confidence that the fair value assumptions used to evaluate a transaction will remain relevant through closing. It also improves the reliability of early-state deal modeling and reduces the likelihood that transaction economics will shift materially late in the process.

A changing M&A market  requires discipline

The current M&A environment represents a transition from constraint to opportunity.

Many of the pressures from the rising rate cycle have eased. Loan discount severity has moderated, bank valuations have improved, and approval timelines have shortened. At the same time, changes in purchase accounting have simplified one of the more complex elements of deal modeling.

Even so, fair value remains highly sensitive to assumptions for both the interest rate component and the credit component. Core deposit intangible values have decreased and stabilized, reducing concern for buyers’ future amortization expense levels, but they remain an important part of franchise value in many transactions.

The result is a more active deal environment than a few years ago, but not a simpler one. Evaluating transaction economics in financial institution acquisitions or mergers requires disciplined valuation frameworks, forward-looking macro assumptions, and granular portfolio analytics. Early-stage due diligence fair value analysis also remains essential to gauge deal economics. Finally, the interaction between valuation and CECL continues to require careful consideration under the new FASB treatment for PCD and PSL loans.

Abrigo has deep valuation and bank purchase accounting expertise. We provide accurate and timely fair value and income recognition services for financial institutions.

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About the Author

Mike Green

Director, Advisory Services
Mike Green is Director of Abrigo Advisory Services’ valuation and business combination consultancy, where he leverages his 30+ years of financial advisory experience to provide clients merger and acquisition analysis, corporate valuations, and strategic, capital, and business plans. Before joining Abrigo in 2021, Mike was a senior manager in the EVOLV

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