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The risks and opportunities ahead for banking: Insights from ThinkBIG

Mary Ellen Biery
May 22, 2025
Read Time: 0 min
Abrigo CEO Jay Blandford at ThinkBIG

A rundown of the hot topics ahead, as surfaced by nearly 1,000 bankers and industry experts. 

From uncertainty over tariffs and regulations and the impact on small businesses to fraud threats and AI opportunities, here's what attendees at Abrigo's ThinkBIG 2025 are focused on for the months ahead. 

Key topics covered in this post: 

Issues and common themes bankers should be ready to tackle

Nearly 1,000 people — including bankers representing 365 financial institutions — gathered at Abrigo’s ThinkBIG 2025 conference this week in Orlando, Florida, for three intense days of hallway huddles, hands-on labs, and the kind of candid peer conversations you can’t stream later.

A few consistent takeaways surfaced as lenders, credit leaders, risk managers, BSA Officers, and fraud fighters hustled from break-time networking to sessions led by more than 80 industry experts.

Financial institutions have plenty of opportunities and risks ahead in 2025 and beyond, but below are some of the common themes and imperatives that speakers and attendees said are shaping the next 6-12 months.

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1. Keep small businesses resilient amid economic uncertainty

Banks and credit unions understand the role small businesses play in their communities. But with the economic outlook murky and business demographics shifting, speakers at ThinkBIG 2025 challenged institutions to reassess the opportunity and how they’re supporting this segment—and to sharpen the tools, products, and services they use to do it efficiently.

Ginger Siegel, North America Small Business Lead at Mastercard, noted that some six million new small businesses launched in 2024 alone, a dramatic increase from fewer than 900,000 in 2018. But inflation, labor shortages, and tariffs are leading many to put off investments and capital requests, several speakers said.

Without the cash provided during COVID, the uncertainty is tough for small businesses, and it’s tough for lenders trying to make credit decisions. One commercial banker described how a meeting with a “perfect” borrower to “check boxes” related to tariff risk described how 70% of its suppliers were in China, and it wasn’t sure how it will adjust.

To help businesses stay resilient, speakers encouraged banks to connect frequently with small businesses and pair relationship banking with modern data and technology. That includes alternative data for underwriting, such as real-time receipts, as well as automation with small business lending software to compete with fintechs’ faster decision times. It may also mean offering different products or services beyond checking, savings, and loans.

“Small businesses don’t want to be sold to, they want to be spoken to,” Siegel said. They often need help with cybersecurity, succession planning, and managing cash flow, which is why Mastercard recently built an expense management solution for small businesses.

Several institutions described bundling treasury management and fraud-protection services to boost efficiency and deepen relationships. These value-added services not only strengthen margins, they also make it harder for small businesses to leave when rates shift.

2. Stay disciplined—even if some rules ease

As regulatory priorities shift in Washington, some bankers may be tempted to relax. But speakers at ThinkBIG 2025 urged caution: Even if the tone softens temporarily, examiners haven’t let up—and the next administration could bring a sharp pivot.

“Don’t take your eye off the ball,” advised Laurel Sykes, EVP and Chief Risk Officer at American Riviera Bank. “This is a four-year administration, and deregulation is definitely necessary and helpful. But executive orders are merely shifting priorities. They don’t do anything about the existing regulations we still have to comply with.”

In addition, Sykes reminded attendees that bankers have seen multiple cycles of regulatory whiplash. “I remember days when we had to do look-backs of loan decisions for three, four years because a new administration came in and all of a sudden fair lending was the big thing again.”

Sticking with practices that are good for customers and the institution regardless of the regulatory environment also applies to anti-money laundering and fraud efforts, speakers said. Abrigo Director of Client Engagement Terri Luttrell said risk assessments remain foundational to the pillars of BSA, even as certain rulemakings stall. Keeping the risk assessment current helps institutions stay focused on their highest-risk areas, regardless of regulatory noise.

Auditors, too, illustrate the need to continue “doing the right thing.” CECL-related scrutiny continues, especially around qualitative factors, governance practices and documentation.

“You need a management team that is actively reevaluating what’s going into your model,” said Mark Scriven, principal, Elliott Davis. “It’s not a set-it-and-forget-it process.”

Abrigo advisors also emphasized that stress testing, backtesting CECL models, and sensitivity analysis are increasingly expected as part of sound model governance.

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3. Stay ahead of fraud and financial-crime evolution

Fraud continues to evolve, and financial institutions are seeing firsthand that it’s not just a consumer issue. It’s a business risk and a reputational threat. In fact, over 57% of small business owners said they have experienced fraud, and only 16% feel extremely prepared against fraud, according to a recent Abrigo survey of more than 1,000 respondents.

Several ThinkBIG 2025 sessions underscored how fraudsters are moving faster, targeting small businesses and older adults with increasingly sophisticated schemes. From persistent check fraud to pig-butchering to cryptocurrency schemes, teams must be aware of the latest fraud trends to have proactive conversations with customers, and they must use fraud detection tools sufficient for their institution’s risk profile.

Fraud may be unavoidable—but with the right strategy, it doesn’t have to be unmanageable.

Another common fraud risk is that small business owners often underestimate their risk, despite the fact that 50% of all cyberattacks hit small businesses. Yet most financial institutions don’t ask about cyber protection in the underwriting process. “You can underwrite a business that has a beautiful balance sheet and one cyberattack can wipe them out,” Siegel of Mastercard said.

4. Use AI where it already works—then scale deliberately

AI was a major focus at ThinkBIG 2025, and not just in the sessions. It showed up in hallway conversations, live demos, and candid comments from attendees who’ve seen firsthand how the technology can save time and reduce risk. Abrigo AI-driven tools that draft loan memos, answer policy questions, or streamline loan review are no longer theoretical—they’re in production and delivering value. 

Beta solution AskAbrigo, for example, lets staff search internal policy documents in plain language, returning clean answers with citations. Other tools, like Abrigo's Loan Review Assistant and Narrative Generation, also in beta, help speed up credit analysis while flagging missing data for human review.

“In five years, every banker will have an AI co-pilot—not replacing people, empowering them,” predicted Ravi Nemalikanti, Abrigo’s Chief Product and Technology Officer. “It's going to be similar to how we use Microsoft Office today. Can anybody imagine a life without Excel?”

Adoption has accelerated. More than three-quarters of respondents in a recent Abrigo survey said they are adopting or planning their approach to AI. That's nearly triple the share responding the same way a year earlier.

But many attendees expressed frustration: They understand the business case for AI but feel that their institutions are moving too slowly. In conversations throughout the conference, bankers said they’re eager to experiment. However, meaningful adoption is difficult without executive-level support to develop clear guardrails and approval processes. Many expressed the need for educational AI resources for bankers.

Several panelists already using Microsoft’s Copilot suggested financial institutions start small so they can prove value as they build policies and plans. Starting with clean, reliable data and documenting prompt inputs and assumptions are key to scaling safely.

David Christiansen, Chief Credit Officer from First County Bank in Stamford, Connecticut, and others urged their peers to walk before trying to run. “You don’t have to take the whole bottle of aspirin;  you can take a couple at a time.”

AI doesn’t replace bankers—it frees them up to do more of what they do best. The real question isn’t whether it works. It’s whether your institution is ready to use and compete with it.

Abrigo has developed an AI readiness checklist to help financial institutions navigate their way to implementing AI tools needed to remain competitive.

5. Plan for liquidity risks and rate changes

If the last two years taught anything, it’s that liquidity risks can move faster than institutions are ready for. At ThinkBIG 2025, bankers revisited past lessons and got advice for ensuring models, policies, and assumptions are ready for whatever is ahead.

Speakers encouraged institutions to revisit their stress-testing and funding frameworks now—not when rates or deposits move. The more tightly connected your data and decision-making processes are, the faster your institution can adapt to what’s next, said Dave Koch, Managing Director of Abrigo Advisory Services.

Treasury specialists from Bloomberg emphasized that disjointed systems and manual processes remain top challenges for liquidity forecasting. But they also pointed to AI and machine learning as tools to close the gap.

6. Technology and human connections: The formula for remaining relevant

At ThinkBIG 2025, one idea cut across discussions of AI, risk, credit, and compliance: Connection—among bankers, between departments, and with customers—isn’t just a cultural asset. It’s a strategic one that can help financial institutions compete with a growing list of competitors in an uncertain environment.

Panelists and attendees shared how they’re pairing technology, including AI, not to replace staff but to free them up so bankers can focus on judgment calls, personal interactions, and local market nuance.

“We want to help you be more efficient, stay compliant, manage risk, and surface the insights buried in your data so you can make better decisions,” said Abrigo CEO Jay Blandford.

Financial institutions may not be able to avoid every pothole. But they can prepare so that their bank or credit union is sturdy enough to absorb the shocks.

“We’re not just a vendor—our role is to be on board with you," he said. "With the right people, technology, and data, you can spot the rough patches early and stay focused on the destination, while others are stuck fixing flats."

Financial institutions that use technology to better meet customer and operational needs can still center their people and processes on what remains core: asking the right questions, listening carefully, and acting intentionally.

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About the Author

Mary Ellen Biery

Senior Strategist & Content Manager
Mary Ellen Biery is Senior Strategist & Content Manager at Abrigo, where she works with advisors and other experts to develop whitepapers, original research, and other resources that help financial institutions drive growth and manage risk. A former equities reporter for Dow Jones Newswires whose work has been published in

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About Abrigo

Abrigo enables U.S. financial institutions to support their communities through technology that fights financial crime, grows loans and deposits, and optimizes risk. Abrigo's platform centralizes the institution's data, creates a digital user experience, ensures compliance, and delivers efficiency for scale and profitable growth.

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