When developing a budget, one of the features of an ALM model that can be helpful for staff and management is the ability to examine what-if scenarios. By inputting different rate scenarios or different management expectations for loan or deposit growth, the ALM model can show the impact across the balance sheet without having to change cell after cell in multiple spreadsheets. This makes it easier to weigh decisions on potential expenditures, new products, or other budgetary choices.
The plan for balance sheet growth and the corresponding income and expense along with the plan for non-interest income and operating expenses will become the submitted budgeted. A good budgeting tool will allow you to run budget variance reports throughout the year that show a comparison of what actually happened in a given month compared to what was budgeted for in that month.
Once the plan is voted on and approved by the board, the budget is then locked down and will not be changed during the year. That is the major difference between a budget and a forecast: the budget is static and will not change based on new factors that develop throughout the upcoming year. The forecast, on the other hand, is all about recognizing changing conditions.
Managing the goals outlined in a financial institution’s budget requires the ability to project cash flows and future changes for assets and liabilities, and that’s where the dynamic asset/liability management model becomes even more valuable. Many of the same inputs required for the ALM model are used to develop the forecast and budget at the beginning of the budget year, and to adjust the forecast to better manage throughout the year as conditions change.
A forecast is a rolling estimate of a financial institution’s future income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement that is constantly being updated based on the latest history and current economic expectations. The forecast should be a good representation of expected growth for the next 24 – 36 months.
The forecast generated by the ALM model is used by management to generate quarterly Earnings at Risk and Equity at Risk reports, which show how much risk potential changes in interest rates could pose to the financial institution’s earnings and equity, or value. Knowing the bank or credit union’s current position helps management and Asset/Liability Committee (ALCO) members understand as rates are changing how those are going to impact their interest rate risk measures.
New information that would cause the financial institution to update the forecast could include higher- than-expected deposit growth like what was seen during the last year in many institutions, or much lower loan growth than expected. No one anticipated the impacts a pandemic would have on balance sheet growth, either on the asset side or the liability side. This made many budgets out of date very quickly during the past few months, so adjusting the forecast was critical for management and boards to stay on top of the changing conditions.
As forecasts of many of the nuances in the economic environment are rolled forward and adjusted, they can be adjusted for in the forecast to account for changing loan and deposit growth. These adjustments in growth and the much lower interest rate forecast that we are currently dealing with have significantly changed many growth strategies for the remainder of the year. There may also be significant increases in provisions for loan loss as loan defaults are expected to begin increasing.
Overall market rates are much lower than what was anticipated at the beginning of this year. The current rate environment is making things extremely tough to manage an already tight net interest margin. Loan growth may be non-existent and investment options with a decent yield are extremely hard to find. However, by adjusting forecasts based on the latest information, financial institutions are able to have a more accurate picture of earnings at risk or equity at risk at any given point in time in order to make the best decisions.
A good asset/liability management model has a lot of valuable information that can be capitalized on when going through the budgeting process. If a forecast is maintained properly throughout the year you are, in essence, doing a mini-budget every time you update the history and your financial forecast. Scheduled cash flows downloaded from the core system provide the run-off for the balance sheet, and by updating the balance sheet growth you are making sure current and new money cash flows make sense. Add in pricing decisions for your loans, investments, and deposits, and the income statement is on its way to becoming a budget as well. All that is needed then is attention to be spent on the non-interest portions of the income statement and you have a completed budget. Utilizing your dynamic forecast to facilitate the completion of your annual budgeting process is a great way to leverage the information found in your ALM model.